The Imperceptible Review

Urbit Takeoff is Here

Apr 22, 2022 • ~hatryx-lastud

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TLDR: The Urbit network is on track to have 1.8M activated planets by April 2023. That’s 77x the current number. In this post, we'll analyze the historical network data and present a simple forecasting model.

urbit-takeoff-graph1.png Number of activated planets on the Urbit Network, December 2018 to April 2022. Source: network.urbit.org

At the beginning of 2021, there were 8,565 activated planets on the network.

By February 6 of this year there were still only about 11,911 activated planets.

Growth was slow because Ethereum gas fees made it prohibitively expensive to spawn planets.

Then everything changed. Tlon engineers shipped a custom Layer 2 solution.

Suddenly, it only cost a few bucks to spawn a planet, and Tlon covered it anyway.

I spawned my first Layer 2 planet, for free, on February 7. I remember because I made this tutorial on how to do it.

Between January 2021 and the introduction of Layer 2, Urbit was adding about 239 planets per month, on average. That’s a growth rate of about 2.8% monthly.

In the last two months, Urbit grew to 23,363 activated planets, roughly doubling the number of planets activated over Urbit’s entire lifespan theretofore.

We added 11,452 planets in 2 months, or about 5,726 planets per month.

Another way to put it: In 2022, Urbit is now seeing a monthly growth rate of about 48%, roughly a 16x acceleration relative to its growth rate in 2021.

If growth continues at this rate over 2022, we’ll have almost 2M activated planets by this time next year.

We can visualize the network growth we’d expect if we assume that the next 12 months with Layer 2 are similar to the first two months of Layer 2. I consider this a reasonable assumption.

Let’s treat the expected monthly growth rate as a distribution and assume that over the next 12 months, it will be plus or minus 10 points from the 48% monthly growth rate we’ve observed so far. 38% pessimistically, 58% optimistically.

The point estimate 12 months out would be 1.8M activated planets, with the pessimistic expectation being 1M and the optimistic expectation being 2.8M.

Forecasting-Urbit-Network-Growth.png

Urbit takeoff isn’t coming. Urbit takeoff is here.


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Comments

Apr 22, 2022 • ~misfur-dibdun

hell yeah it is, and i'm living proof. glad to be here

Apr 22, 2022 • ~tacryt-socryp

Fascinating, I love seeing the hockey stick start to form!

Apr 22, 2022 • ~tonned-fampet

I'm one of those L1 @p's who spent far too much money on gas fees, AMA.

Apr 22, 2022 • ~hansel-ribbur

i need moar stars, clearly

Apr 22, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

📈📈📈

Apr 22, 2022 • ~migrev-dolseg

looking to buy a star for this reason. what's the best place to do that?

Apr 22, 2022 • ~hansel-ribbur

~migrev-dolseg personally, i prefer OTC, and this is a good place to start: ~tirrel/the-marketplace if you want something trustless, they are also listed on urbitex.io and opensea.io

Apr 22, 2022 • ~ripnyt-ripnyt

takes 1 month of rate, uses it to forecast 12. LETS GO

Apr 22, 2022 • ~migrev-dolseg

LETS GOOOOO

Apr 23, 2022 • ~hatryx-lastud

Hey I took 2 months ~ripnyt-ripnyt!

May 4, 2022 • ~batnev-riddur

Urbit feels increasingly more useful. I remember reading about it several years ago and it was just a sea of terminology. It’s way easier now to actually get up and running. It’ll be interesting to see how the growth posts this year

May 25, 2022 • ~dozsyx-libzod

~hatryx-lastud I used your tutorial to get a free planet (thank you!). Why on urbit.live does it still show my planet status as <i>Inactive</i>?

May 25, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

~dozsyx-libzod use network.urbit.org

May 25, 2022 • ~dozsyx-libzod

~sitful-hatred awesome. thanks

May 25, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

~dozsyx-libzod np, urbit.live doesnt show layer 2 txo’s

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

My pushback would be, activated planets are not a great metric of Urbit adoption. We really want to be measuring “daily active users”, which is more like ships active on the network at any given time. While activated planets may be a forward metric, daily active planets are much more modest today. I’m hoping we’ll get there, though!

Aug 13, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

~ranter-tapper daily active planets isn't really a measurable metric though, somewhat by design -- there's no central nexus that they all pass through except initial keying

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

But even then, having generated a key is a much stronger signal of adoption than a planet being unlocked.

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

Meant to tag you, ~sitful-hatred ^^

Aug 13, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

~ranter-tapper it's unclear to me what you mean by unlocked; justin's number purport to measure activated planets, though i'm also uncertain whether this measures spawns or actually activated-by-a-person ships, which would mean they're an l2 ship on a key revision greater than 1

Aug 13, 2022 • ~hansel-ribbur

no need to tag. just leaving a comment here once grants us all interminable notifications

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

Got it thanks ~hansel-ribbur. ~sitful-hatred — as investors/researchers we should be interested in a person actually activating and using an Urbit. I don’t believe “activated planet” means that, I think it has more to do with being activated in the address space. I will find out precisely.

Aug 13, 2022 • ~hansel-ribbur

your @p dovetails with your autism. a+

Aug 13, 2022 • ~tonned-fampet

> daily active planets isn't really a measurable metric though, somewhat by design I thought Tlon measures this by iterating through the azimuth points corresponding to ships/planets and |hi-ing them to see who is up. Isn't this what the 'Online' metric on [network.urbit.org](https://network.urbit.org) is measuring?

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

That would make sense. My overarching point is “online” figures are vastly dwarfed by the “activated planet” figures Justin mentions.

Aug 13, 2022 • ~tonned-fampet

It's true. According to the above mentioned 'Online' metric, there seem to be about 1500-1700 ships online at a given time.

Aug 13, 2022 • ~sitful-hatred

ah, i somehow never noticed that graph at the bottom of the network explorer, which does in fact distinguish between spawned and activated -- i also wasn't aware of tlon's pinging ships, so all of my previous qualifications are unfounded

Aug 13, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

There is a lot more to build here. :) But it’s promising.

Aug 17, 2022 • ~rigfus-digpen-malbex-lacnyr

We have around 500 k users? I'm SO FUCKING PROUD OF URBIT I LOVE URBIT

Aug 17, 2022 • ~ranter-tapper

I think we have 1500 or so daily actives. Still great start.

Aug 17, 2022 • ~rigfus-digpen-malbex-lacnyr

That's pretty solid!

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